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彩票發(fā)行方案的優(yōu)化
目 錄
摘要 1
1 彩票發(fā)行問(wèn)題的背景 3
2 彩票的分類(lèi)及設(shè)獎(jiǎng)規(guī)則 4
2.1 “傳統(tǒng)型”彩票 4
2.2 “樂(lè)透型”彩票 4
2.3 發(fā)行彩票的設(shè)獎(jiǎng)規(guī)則 5
3 提出模型要解決的問(wèn)題 7
3.1 提出彩票方案需解決的問(wèn)題 7
3.2 模型參數(shù)的基本假設(shè) 7
3.3 彩票各種獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)出現(xiàn)的可能性分析 7
4 建立彩票模型 11
4.1 1等獎(jiǎng)期望模型 11
4.2 彩票模型的最終建立 12
4.2.1 建立彩票模型的準(zhǔn)備 12
4.2.2 確定吸引力函數(shù) 14
4.2.3 彩票模型的建立 15
4.2.4 對(duì)各方案合理性的分析 15
4.2.5 彩票模型的求解 16
5 模型評(píng)價(jià)及改進(jìn)意見(jiàn) 19
5.1 模型評(píng)價(jià) 19
5.2 模型改進(jìn)意見(jiàn) 19
參考文獻(xiàn) 20
致謝詞 21
附錄 22
摘 要
本設(shè)計(jì)旨在建立關(guān)于彩票發(fā)行方案的數(shù)學(xué)模型，分析現(xiàn)有的29種彩票發(fā)行方案的合理性，并以設(shè)定的函數(shù)為標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，設(shè)計(jì)1種更好的方案。
針對(duì) “傳統(tǒng)型”和“樂(lè)透型”兩種彩票各獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)中獎(jiǎng)概率，計(jì)算各方案每種獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)獎(jiǎng)?lì)~的期望。先考慮各獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)的1等獎(jiǎng)的期望,建立1個(gè)比較簡(jiǎn)單的1等獎(jiǎng)期望模型。然后再綜合考慮1、2、3等獎(jiǎng)的金額，中1等獎(jiǎng)的概率、中2、3等獎(jiǎng)的總概率、中4至7等獎(jiǎng)的總概率6個(gè)方面，構(gòu)造吸引力函數(shù)，分析各方案對(duì)彩民的吸引力，求出對(duì)彩民吸引力較大的方案。綜合分析“樂(lè)透型”彩票和“傳統(tǒng)型”彩票中各方案的合理性；結(jié)合“樂(lè)透型”彩票中的最優(yōu)方案的優(yōu)點(diǎn)并以此為基礎(chǔ)，限定取值范圍搜索最優(yōu)值，改進(jìn)其各獎(jiǎng)項(xiàng)獎(jiǎng)?lì)~，在此的基礎(chǔ)上給出1種更好的方案。
關(guān)鍵詞：彩票方案；中獎(jiǎng)概率；頭獎(jiǎng)期望；吸引力。
Abstract
In this design we will seek for the mathematic model of an attractive lottery ticket scheme. We analyze the rationality of 29 kinds of lottery ticket schemes and then establish a better scheme based on the objective function.
This design studies the ratio of getting the winning number in lottery in “Traditional type” and “Too happy type” lottery tickets respectively. Firstly, it calculates the expectation value of various of the first-class prize amount and we study the sum of winning the first-class, the second –class and third-class prizes, winning the first-class’s probability, the total probability of the second –class and third-class prizes, the total probability of the fifth-class, sixth-class and seventh-class, we adopt a quantitative description-“attraction” of lottery schemes and reach a conclusion which model is more appealing to buyers. Integrate analyze rationality of the “Traditional type ” and “Too happy type” lottery tickets ;According to the excellence of “Too happy type” lottery model , and at the base of this model, Limit the worth of scope and search for the superior value, Improve its each prize sum, at base of this model to give a kind of better project.
Keywords: Lottery ticket project; Win a prize all rate; First prize expectation; Attraction
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