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金融危機(jī)下 看那些行業(yè)能因禍得福
One in five US workers regularly attends after-work drinks with co-workers.
If there are silver linings to the recession, they're not immediately apparent. After all, the national unemployment rate is 8.1 percent, the highest since 1983, and economists predict it will reach 9 percent by 2012。
Gross domestic product is forecast to shrink more this year than at any other time since the Great Depression. And across the country, stores are closing, municipal budgets are tightening, and banks are begging for bailouts。
But a handful of industries, companies, and products are doing well--relatively speaking. They run the gamut from Quarter Pounders to contraceptives, but they share a key component: Whether they help people pivot to new careers, cut costs at home, or simply escape from all the bad news, they're poised not only to weather the economic storm but to, in some way, benefit from it。
See the full list of the 10 top recession winners。
1. Home Gardening
Research by Atlee Burpee, the world's biggest seed company, found that $50 of seeds and fertilizer can yield $1,250 worth of produce. Green thumbs agree: Sales at Burpee are expected to jump 25 percent in 2012, while veggie seed sales at Park Seed are up 20 percent this year from 2008. And a National Gardening Association poll shows that the number of households planning to grow their own food in 2012 has increased by 19 percent from 2008. The trade-off? Fewer flowers. With garden space—and budgets—squeezed, flower seed sales are down。
2. Hollywood
The number of subscribers to Netflix, the DVD delivery service, climbed 26 percent in the fourth quarter from the same time last year. That helped put the company's revenue up 19 percent from the previous year. And according to industry researcher Media by Numbers, 2012's box office sales are tracking 16.5 percent higher than the year before—at this rate, theaters will make $1.9 billion, versus last year's $1.6 billion—with attendance up nearly 15 percent。
3. Bodice Rippers
Harlequin, the world's biggest publisher of series romance, saw North American sales rise $3 million in 2008's fourth quarter from a year earlier. Other escapist literature also has done well: Although most book sales were flat or down in February 2012 from the year before, a spokesperson for the Borders book chain says that science fiction and fantasy were up—as were humor titles。
4. Condom Makers
Whether for at-home entertainment or to try to stave off the cost of a baby in trying times, condom sales rose 6 percent in January from the year before. "If people don't have the money to go out to a fancy dinner or are looking to cut back, Trojan gives them some real affordable ways to stay in and make some great memories together," Jim Daniels, Trojan's vice president of marketing, told USA Today。
5. Résumé Editing
Résumé writer Jerry Bills, who has worked on nearly 30,000 résumés since 1986, says his sales numbers are up 46 percent from last winter. "I'm way too busy to bother to even track it all," he says. "All I know is I don't even have a life anymore."
One poll by the National Résumé Writers Association found that 54 percent of respondents had seen an increase in clients as economic conditions worsened。
And at her own business, says Feldberg, December and January orders had jumped 300 percent over the same time last year. But résumés for certain industries are being submitted more than others. While résumés for the restaurant industry, healthcare, and tourism are up at Peterson's ResumeEdge, those for financial services are, unsurprisingly, down。
即便經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)中還有一線曙光，它也不會(huì)立刻顯現(xiàn)。畢竟美國的失業(yè)率已達(dá)1983年以來的最高水平——8.1%，據(jù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家預(yù)計(jì)，到2012年這一數(shù)字將達(dá)到9%。
據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，今年美國的GDP降幅將達(dá)上世紀(jì)“大蕭條”以來的最高水平。如今的美國，商鋪倒閉，地方財(cái)政吃緊，銀行則紛紛向政府要救濟(jì)。
但相對(duì)而言，有一批產(chǎn)業(yè)、公司和產(chǎn)品在眼下的經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)時(shí)期效益還不錯(cuò)，從麥當(dāng)勞Quarter Pounders漢堡到安全套無所不包，但它們都有一個(gè)共同特點(diǎn)，那就是要么可以幫人們找到新工作，削減家庭開支，要么是僅僅逃避所有的壞消息，它們不僅能平安渡過金融風(fēng)暴，而且還能以某種方式從中獲利。
經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)因禍得福的十大贏家如下：
1 家庭種植
全球最大的種子公司Atlee Burpee開展的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，投入50美元購買種子和化肥就可以產(chǎn)出價(jià)值達(dá)1250美元的農(nóng)產(chǎn)品。種植專家們也對(duì)此表示贊同：據(jù)預(yù)計(jì)，Burpee公司今年的種子銷量將上升25%，而Park Seed公司的蔬菜種銷量與去年同期相比也上漲了20%。美國園藝協(xié)會(huì)開展的一項(xiàng)民調(diào)顯示，今年計(jì)劃自己種植農(nóng)作物的家庭數(shù)量比去年增加了19%。代價(jià)就是花卉減少了。由于種植空間和預(yù)算的縮減，花卉種子銷量下降。
2 好萊塢電影
DVD遞送商N(yùn)etflix公司去年第四季度的訂戶數(shù)量比上一年同期增長26%，這使得公司的收入比上一年增加了19%。根據(jù)行業(yè)研究機(jī)構(gòu) Media by Numbers的調(diào)查，2012年的電影票房比去年增加了16.5%，按照這個(gè)增幅，今年院線將有19億美元進(jìn)賬，而去年僅有16億美元，此外影院的上座數(shù)也增長了近15%。
3 言情小說
全球最大的言情系列小說出版商Harlequin稱，去年第四季度其在北美市場的銷售額比上一年同期增加了300萬美元。其它具有“逃避現(xiàn)實(shí)” 功效的圖書銷量也很好。盡管與去年同期相比，今年2月份大部分圖書的銷量平平或下降，但Borders圖書連鎖店的發(fā)言人稱，科幻小說和書名幽默的圖書銷量有所上升。
4 安全套生產(chǎn)商
無論是為了增進(jìn)家庭情趣，還是為了在經(jīng)濟(jì)困難時(shí)期避免養(yǎng)育子女的開銷，今年1月份安全套的銷量比去年同期增加了6%�！疤芈逡痢惫镜氖袌龈笨偙O(jiān)吉姆?丹尼爾斯在接受《今日美國》采訪時(shí)說：“如果人們沒錢出去吃大餐或者想節(jié)省開支，‘特洛伊’可為大家提供可以負(fù)擔(dān)的方式，在家中一起創(chuàng)造美好的回憶�！�
5 簡歷代寫
自1986年入行以來，簡歷寫手杰瑞?比爾斯處理的簡歷數(shù)達(dá)近3萬份。他稱現(xiàn)在他的業(yè)務(wù)量比去年冬季增加了46%。他說：“我都忙得沒法逐字修改了，現(xiàn)在我只知道我已經(jīng)沒有自己的生活了。”
美國簡歷撰寫者協(xié)會(huì)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的惡化，54%的簡歷代寫者客戶量增加。
簡歷代寫者菲爾德伯格稱，就她自己的業(yè)務(wù)而言，去年12月和今年1月接到的訂單比上年同期增加了三倍。但相對(duì)于其它行業(yè)而言，某些行業(yè)提交的簡歷量增長較多。在彼得森公司的ResumeEdge網(wǎng)站上，酒店、醫(yī)療和旅游業(yè)的簡歷量大幅增加，而金融領(lǐng)域的簡歷卻“意外”遇冷。
6. Public Universities
The recession may be hurting public colleges' budgets, but it's boosting their appeal to students. The Connecticut State University System expects an 11 percent rise in applications this year, while Oregon State University's applications have grown by 12 percent. And in a record-breaking year at the University of Texas, numbers are up 6 percent。
7. Chocolate
Hershey's, the largest North American chocolate manufacturer, increased earnings by 51.4 percent in the fourth quarter。
That's partly because of cost cutting and ad campaigns, but it helped that sales rose 2.6 percent. Overall, sinful sweets seem to be faring well in the recession。
The British Cadbury company, which sells both chocolate and goodies like Trident gum, found its annual profits up 30 percent in 2008. And market research firm Mintel predicts that the chocolate market will keep growing throughout the recession。
Analysts say that, like the oft-quoted "lipstick index," rising chocolate sales show that when Americans are cutting their spending elsewhere, they feel more entitled to small indulgences。
8. McDonald's
Waistlines won't thin along with wallets if sales figures at the nation's biggest fast-food chain are any indication。
McDonald's same-store sales in the United States rose 6.8 percent in February 2012. But not all cheap eats have prospered. Sales at the pricier Arby's dropped by 8.5 percent in the fourth quarter, slamming the Wendy's/Arby's Group with a $393.2 million loss。
Pizza chains also have been hit, with same-store sales falling 3 percent in the fourth quarter at Domino's and 1 percent at Pizza Hut。
9. Career Development Websites
Traffic to job sites increased 20 percent in January 2012 from the year before, according to Nielsen Online. That was driven not only by the unemployed but by people who still had jobs。
People are seeking out information in more old-fashioned ways, too. Borders says its sales of career guides are up from last year。
10. At-Home Coffee Brews
The economy must be bad when even Starbucks, purveyor of $4 lattes, introduces its first value menu. But while the powerhouse's profits fell 69 percent in the fourth quarter of last year, revenue at Vermont's Green Mountain Coffee Roasters climbed 56 percent。
And retailers have been selling Mr. Coffee's coffee makers faster than the company can ship them, says Matt Ragland, vice president of marketing, with sales of coffee makers and accessories rising almost 5 percent from last year。
6、公立大學(xué)
經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)可能危及到了美國公立大學(xué)的預(yù)算開支，但卻增加了這些大學(xué)對(duì)學(xué)生的吸引力�？的腋裰萘⒋髮W(xué)系統(tǒng)今年的申請(qǐng)學(xué)生人數(shù)預(yù)計(jì)將增加11%，俄勒岡州立大學(xué)的申請(qǐng)人數(shù)增加了12%，得克薩斯州立大學(xué)的申請(qǐng)人數(shù)也創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄，增幅為6%。
7、巧克力
北美最大的巧克力生產(chǎn)商Hershey's去年第四季度的收益增長了51.4%。
這可能跟削減成本和廣告宣傳有關(guān)，但其中僅有2.6%的增長源于這兩項(xiàng)�？傮w而言，被視為“罪過”的甜食在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期似乎光景不錯(cuò)。
以銷售巧克力及Trident口香糖等甜食為主的英國Cadbury公司去年的利潤增長了30%。據(jù)Mintel市場調(diào)查公司預(yù)測，巧克力市場在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退時(shí)期將持續(xù)升溫。
分析人士稱，就像常常提到的“口紅效應(yīng)”，巧克力銷量的不斷上升表明當(dāng)人們削減其它開支時(shí)，會(huì)覺得更有理由小小地奢侈一下。
8、麥當(dāng)勞
如果美國最大的快餐連鎖店“麥當(dāng)勞”的銷量增加，那么美國人的腰圍就不會(huì)像錢包一樣癟下去。
麥當(dāng)勞在美國的同店銷售量今年2月增長6.8%。但并不是所有的廉價(jià)食品生意都很興隆。價(jià)格稍高點(diǎn)的Arby's連鎖店的銷量去年第四季度下降8.5%，給Wendy's/Arby's集團(tuán)造成3.932億美元的損失。
比薩連鎖店也受到了沖擊，達(dá)美樂皮薩去年第四季度的同店銷售量下降3%，必勝客的銷售量下降1%。
9、職業(yè)規(guī)劃網(wǎng)站
據(jù)“尼爾森在線”調(diào)查顯示，招聘網(wǎng)站今年1月份的訪問量比去年同期增長了20%。這其中做出貢獻(xiàn)的不僅有失業(yè)者，還包括現(xiàn)在有工作的人。
如今人們也在用一些老辦法來獲取信息。Borders圖書連鎖店稱該店職業(yè)發(fā)展指導(dǎo)手冊(cè)的銷量較去年有所增加。
10、家庭自制咖啡
連一杯拿鐵賣4美元的星巴克都推出了超值菜單，經(jīng)濟(jì)不景氣程度可想而知。去年第四季度星巴克的利潤大跌69%，但佛蒙特綠山咖啡烘焙公司的收益卻上漲了56%。
據(jù)“咖啡先生”市場銷售副總監(jiān)馬特?拉格蘭德介紹，該公司咖啡機(jī)的銷售速度比上貨速度還快。該公司的咖啡制作工具和其它相關(guān)產(chǎn)品的銷量比去年同期增長了近5%。
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